And the Band Played On

The phrase “And the Band Played On” is a reference to a 1980’s film of that title that documented the growing AID’s epidemic and the reluctance of global governments to acknowledge it or to take any action. It seems apropos to the current market conditions.  Despite the age of the current Bull Market (eight years)…

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Global warming . . . markets that is

Regardless of individual views on global warming, the fact that global markets gave a warm reception to President Trumps announcement on America pulling out of the Paris agreements is indisputable. I am careful to not make this newsletter a commentary on political matters—there are plenty of forums for that.  But, political actions do affect the…

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Tone deaf or right on pitch?

Is the market “tone deaf” and just not hearing warning signs and continuing to put in new highs when the participants should be being more cautious?  Or, is it “right on pitch” and listening to the correct inputs? You can make a case either way.  I focus on trading the reality of the market and…

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How Lowe can it go?

I spelled low “Lowe” since Lowe’s is reporting earnings this week and that is likely to be a bit of a bellwether for market sentiment. Earnings season is winding down and Lowe’s is one of the biggest, most important companies left to report.  They will release earnings before the open on Wednesday, 5/24/17 and expectations…

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C’était étrange (That was weird)

What was weird? The overnight market open was a little weird. I gave the French spelling of it, because of course, this is a reaction to the French Presidential election. The first weird thing is that this is the first major election in recent memory that the polls got right. Remember Brexit and the US…

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The Lights Are On – For Now

Late last week congress avoided a government “shutdown” and passed an extension that pushed a budget decision out a week or so. If you remember, we’ve been through this before a few times over the last few years. Previously it had more drama and volatility in the markets. But now it seems that everyone knows…

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A “Dramatique” Market Open

The overnight futures markets just opened and it was a “dramatique,” open. Of course, I’m using the French word for dramatic, and that seems appropriate as the reaction seems to be primarily a response to the French Presidential election results so far. S&P 500 Future are up over 22 points, about 1% and Gold is…

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This could be it . . . or not

Both the S&P 500 and the DOW are showing very clear patterns, according to Dow Theory, that a correction has begun. This may not be the “Big One” yet, but we have a very high probability of at least a minor pullback before another move up begins. In the video, I walk through the pattern…

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Back to Basics

This week, earnings season kicks off with several big names like; JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup and many others reporting earnings. In addition, Janet Yellen, Chair of the Federal Reserve will be speaking and is expected to answer questions about the “unwinding” of the Fed’s ~$4.5 Trillion balance sheet. These factors may bring the market’s…

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Bull or Bear Market? Maybe a “Cub”

I call this a “Cub” market because the evidence is continuing to point to at least a minor pullback continuing. We haven’t seen this clear of a bearish pattern since the election. Is this “The Big One,” the full-on Bear Market? No evidence of that yet, but we are looking at, at least a minor…

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